At first I was amused at the price action, then thrilled at being able to capture some of the move then suddenly I became very, very afraid as the full implications of a total global financial meltdown began to dawn on me.

Dark thoughts ran through my mind, the markets became completely unhinged. EURJPY which only a few hours ago traded at 123.00 was down to 114.00. But then I noticed something. The carry pairs had lifted off the lows and were actually running up pre-market despite the fact that the index futures were still locked limit down. Sure enough after a -500 point open, the Dow stabilized and traded up off the lows for the rest of the day. Panic selling did not materialize and while no one was celebrating any rallies, for one day at least it appeared that the worst had been averted.

Was that Friday just a taste of things to come? Hard to say. I certainly hope not. Every commentator on TV bravely announces that this is NOT the start of the second Great Depression. I tend to agree, if for no other reason than I can’t imagine such wanton suffering thrust upon our society. One thing is clear however. We do need radical change in how we govern ourselves and our markets.

I am actually a big believer in free markets which through competition produce creative wonderful products and services we all enjoy. What I despise, are rigged markets. I hate Vegas for that very same reason, because it provides the illusion of success while in fact creating the reality of theft. Unfortunately, over the past decade Wall Street has adopted the Las Vegas model of business and we have all been screwed on a scale far greater than any con job ever done. Rigged markets in my opinion are just as evil as collectivist governments because they concentrate the power in the hands of a small group of elite leaders that do not reward merit but promote corruption and graft.

We need free, but fair markets if we are to survive this mess. That means no more side bets in the over the counter world. No more shadowy off -shore hedge funds. You want to play? Play by the rules. Disclose your positions and trade only on a centralized exchange where everyone has a fair shot at success and counter party risk is eliminated. Until these changes are made, I am afraid the nightmares of Friday will continue to repeat themselves.

The image on the left shows the market for the 13.05 at Aintree two hours before the off. As has been predicted by so many, including myself, Betdaq is now becoming a serious alternative to Betfair. A monopoly is never healthy. Now it’s ended. And who would have thought Betfair would have taken the steps to guarantee their monopoly ends?

The Betfair Premium Charge has caused a lot of hysterical comment in the Betfair forum but I published a copy of a defence here from a Betfair employee four weeks ago and I’m philosophical about it. If what Betfair says is true – it needs to do it to keep attracting the losers some feed off – then so be it and the exchange model has failed. If it’s just spin then Betdaq won’t introduce similar when they become, as I do not doubt they will, a second exchange equal to Betfair.

In the meantime if it’s true and Betfair don’t back down then we’ll all benefit from the competition from Betdaq and we’ll be getting a discounted exchange there until Betdaq introduce it as well. Things will pan out. There are too many people in the Betfair forum writing too much but really have nothing to say that’s new now. It’s Betfair’s business. They can do what they want. Whether it’s right or not only time will tell.

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It’s a No Brainer!