“Why pay for a subscription to BetTrader when you can get it for free? There’s 2 ways to win a free month on BetTrader, and both are shameless plugs of the chat forum but there you have it.

The Best Avatar Competition gives away a free month on BetTrader to the person with the best/funniest/nicest/whatever avatar. Winners will be chosen by the forum Stasi at random intervals, probably once or twice a month.

Or you can simply make 100 posts on the chat forum and as long as all your posts weren’t advertising viagra or rolexes we’ll give you a free month on BetTrader.”

There you go, not half bad, pop by and have a look:
Visit Racing Traders

At first I was amused at the price action, then thrilled at being able to capture some of the move then suddenly I became very, very afraid as the full implications of a total global financial meltdown began to dawn on me.

Dark thoughts ran through my mind, the markets became completely unhinged. EURJPY which only a few hours ago traded at 123.00 was down to 114.00. But then I noticed something. The carry pairs had lifted off the lows and were actually running up pre-market despite the fact that the index futures were still locked limit down. Sure enough after a -500 point open, the Dow stabilized and traded up off the lows for the rest of the day. Panic selling did not materialize and while no one was celebrating any rallies, for one day at least it appeared that the worst had been averted.

Was that Friday just a taste of things to come? Hard to say. I certainly hope not. Every commentator on TV bravely announces that this is NOT the start of the second Great Depression. I tend to agree, if for no other reason than I can’t imagine such wanton suffering thrust upon our society. One thing is clear however. We do need radical change in how we govern ourselves and our markets.

I am actually a big believer in free markets which through competition produce creative wonderful products and services we all enjoy. What I despise, are rigged markets. I hate Vegas for that very same reason, because it provides the illusion of success while in fact creating the reality of theft. Unfortunately, over the past decade Wall Street has adopted the Las Vegas model of business and we have all been screwed on a scale far greater than any con job ever done. Rigged markets in my opinion are just as evil as collectivist governments because they concentrate the power in the hands of a small group of elite leaders that do not reward merit but promote corruption and graft.

We need free, but fair markets if we are to survive this mess. That means no more side bets in the over the counter world. No more shadowy off -shore hedge funds. You want to play? Play by the rules. Disclose your positions and trade only on a centralized exchange where everyone has a fair shot at success and counter party risk is eliminated. Until these changes are made, I am afraid the nightmares of Friday will continue to repeat themselves.

Small punters get better prices out of it. If the market is 100.5%, then they’re getting a fair price on their money.

Using market information is what every bookmaker does every day of the week in virtually every market he prices up. Momentum traders are doing nothing else.

You can’t expect to get the same price on a betting exchange as you do at the bookies on every selection. That applies to every sport not just horse racing.

Many have noticed the lack of early priced horse racing turnover has nothing to do with momentum traders. The market has evolved and reached it’s equilibrium. People have found out that sticking larger offers up across the board costs them money overall, so they have curtailed the amounts to fit in with demand at that point in time. Horse racing suffers more than most because it’s harder to determine the correct price and because of the genuine fear of inside information. You’ll also find that most successful traders are not momentum traders and are very opinionated.

Traders are very keen on the economics of movement towards the market equilibrium, but what about the economics of giving away something for nothing? Informed tissue-makers (if they want an early bet in size) have in effect to give away their pricing for scant chance of being matched.

Of course, traders either drip-feed or have to wait until closer to the off. Is the same amount of money matched in effectively the only market as it would be in early/evolving, than late markets? Not necessarily; often, the price has moved past the point where the opinion players want to play. The winners in the fight for the late money may be predominantly technically oriented, rather than judgment-based gamblers.

Technical traders winning is equally merited and their strategy equally legitimate. But what about a style-neutral interface? Momentum / WOM bots can take from losers as they do at the moment (typically by some sleight that involves putting up a worse offer than is likely to be immediately available), and tissue-makers can take from losers in having them blunder into out-of-line bets? Why should penny-size traders be able to play in the early markets to the exclusion of traditional big winners?

The answer may be it’s the market we operate in. Late money is found to be the most accurate prediction of true outcome probabilities and the greater the late odds movement in an entrant, the higher its probability of winning. Simply, bet late and bet often.

Well, that’s it from me today. Stay safe, wherever you are and good luck to you all as always.

So fill or kill orders go in simultaneously on both exchanges. The bot sees what is matched and aims to balance for a risk free profit of £20. I’ve allowed for a commission of 5% in both exchanges. A yield of 2.85% in a second. And no risk – assuming you’re matched in both places. I’ll write more on this at another time. And if ever there was a good time to have an account with both Betdaq and Betfair it is now. But it will not last for long!