I take your point. But for me I like to see the price of a horse moving towards the price I feel it should be before I’ll enter a trade based on it continuing in that direction. Often I’ll be wrong though.

If I go against the momentum simply because of my opinion of value then I will not be comfortable. No matter how much I value my opinion.

I’m sure you know that many losing punters looking for value use flawed logic betting favourites. Because favourites win about 30% of races these punters think that by backing favourites which are at better percentage odds than 30% they will show a profit. So they back favourites at better odds. All that happens is the winning strike rate of these favourites adjusts downwards so backing these favourites still loses money. But they’ve had great value so it makes it worthwhile?

Another aspect of value and its uncertainty is from bookies who are just guessers IMO, they price up from the tissue and copy the guy in the next pitch. Try to get decent money on and you will be wasting your time. Value is a myth. The “professionals” won’t even stand by it. In case they’re wrong.

However, the most successful betting exchange traders are usually very opinionated and yes, many would trade in the way that you describe. Would they be more successful if they didn’t? We’ll never know. They’ll never change.

This article was about trading. Your “… style is to watch the game, form opinions (often flip-flopping many times during a game)” and “…to find value by disagreeing with the market.” Sir, you have a gift. Few share it. And good luck in your search for value. It works for you and so I can’t knock it – for you. But going against any market and basing any trade on your opinion when the market doesn’t share it could be a recipe for disaster.

Many will disagree with me Cassini. And that’s fine. But I welcome the debate. Ladies and gents, have a great day finding value, trading, gambling or whatever combination floats your boat. And good luck to you all as always.

http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2008/11/my-correct-opinion-is-worthless_25.html

The opinion bit is so important. There a few phrases that all keep me honest. One is a price of a selection only indicates the general opinion of people and can bear no reflection on its actual chance. The second is that a horse has no idea what price it is.

Trading is often is more profitable when you don’t share the same opinions as the majority which fortunately clearly I don’t, since I find horse racing the most profitable and predictable sport.