But are you the Richard I know? You live in Sliema and I was at your party not so long ago. If you’re not but you know him say hi because I’m pretty sure he works for Betting Promotion in Msida.

Either way let me know. No more Betfair horse markets for you lot though, eh? LOL. And I’ve still got a couple of books by Sklansky and Harrington that are long overdue to be returned!

And sorry Roberto but I didn’t notice your comment earlier which was a bit remiss of me. My excuse is it got lost in the deluge of competition comments we had today. Sorry. More tomorrow. TTFN.

Good discussion as usual. Some random points from me on the subject on that elusive beast called value (note: I only trade on sports so no flaming pls if the below doesn’t apply to animals/financials):

- “Value is a myth”.
In principle, I agree. The main problem is, it is absolutely impossible for anybody to accurately assess the chances of a team/competitor to win an event as there are too many intangibles. Take a soccer game: somebody in the team got a bad nights’ sleep – referee had an argument with the missus that morning – coach is feeling creative – groundsman is looking for a new job and couldn’t care less what the pitch plays like… the list is endless. So you have a thousand factors that would reduce a team’s chances from say 52% to 50% which you cannot possibly know about, and that’s your precious value gone.

- Market movers & shakers
“What’s the price on the jolly in the next race?” “Ok, I’ll back it for £££. What’s the name of the horse?” I heard this from 3/4-figure punters during my time in betdaq few times a week. Although the sample size is probably too small (worked there 9 months), the rule of thumb seemed to be that if the prize was below evens, they laid. And these are the people who’s money you’re watching – and basing your opinion on! The only sport I bet on privately is NBA basketball, and the price on betfair/pinnacle is the last thing I look at. To be a winning punter, you have to be able to make your own book which you then compare to the market.

-“If I go against the momentum…”
Same here. If I come up with a price that is miles off the market, it’s a small/no bet. Simple answer: I obviously missed something, the linemakers do know a thing or two as well

- a question for the pro’s:
If you have access to a successful prediction software (as I do), you will see “value” all day (see www. bettingpromotion. com for details). So, for example, I happen to know that the 2-2 on the Manchesters playing on Sunday should be 15.5, not 16.5. Where does that leave me? I bet a little (using Kelly & my non-professional bankroll) so that a win doesn’t really make a difference? Or I bet a lot and pray it’s not one of the 95 out of a 100 days where I lose? My point here is that finding value isn’t necessarily the solution to our gambling problems.

Mahalo
Richard

Because, by their calculations, the price Dave was offering WAS value. Sports are not like roulette – we know the true odds on a single number are 1/37, so anything paying 37-1 or greater is value. Long term you will win. Value still exists in sports, it’s just that no one knows for sure what the true probability of an outcome is. It’s impossible to know. One bad decision, one misstep, one fluke and the game goes the other way. It is what makes sports so fascinating. BUT – if we as punters do not regularly find value, then we are ulimately going to be losers. To win long-term, you must be getting value more often than not. Get out and Green-Up says John, and yes, this will work often for little. But it is not a long-term strategy, because as I wrote on my blog today, it means you are exiting your position for no good reason. Value exists, even if we can’t determine it precisely.

And this must be a record blog response – only 2 minutes. I was sitting here just waiting for support. I’ve been waiting all night. Now where’s my 1962 Francis Darroze Bas Armagnac Domaine De Peyrouet? It was around here somewhere! A great year.

I’ll ring you next week if that’s ok?

The Gambler.